When Will Roe Be Reversed?
Today, January 22, 2020, marks the tragic passing of forty-seven years since the Supreme Court invented in Roe v. Wade a so-called “Constitutional right to abortion.”
It is beyond question that there is not a right to abortion found in the text of the Constitution. Constitutionalists - and anyone who can read - know Roe should be reversed immediately. However, there is a difference between when Roe “should” be reversed and when it will actually be reversed.
My sense is that, in the short term, the current court is unlikely to reverse Roe. I believe they are likely to carve it down, but the root of Roe is unlikely to be reversed by this current court, in the short term.
Here’s why. Chief Justice Roberts does not like 5-4 rulings and he especially does not like 5-4 landmark rulings that rock the political landscape. When Roe is reversed it will be more than a landmark ruling, it will be the biggest ruling of the last two generations.
Perhaps my assessment is wrong. I welcome being wrong - especially if it results in a sooner reversal of Roe. However, it simply seems unlikely Chief Justice Roberts will join a 5-4 majority with five men voting to reverse Roe, with all three women voting to keep it. Roberts is cautious and far too worried about how others perceive him and the Judiciary. For the above reasons, in the short term, I do not see him being the fifth and deciding vote to reverse Roe. He should be - I'm just saying I don't see it happening ... until another Justice joins the Court.
My sense is that Roe will be reversed when a great, new, constitutionalist woman joins the Supreme Court. The right female justice will be well positioned – far better than any of the existing male justices – to win the votes of Roberts, Kavanaugh and Gorsuch to reverse Roe. In fact, if the Roe reversal is written by a great female justice it will likely be easier to amass six votes to reverse Roe than to gather five votes without the addition of a great new female leader on the Court.
So, while we know that Roe should be reversed now, my sense is that it will be carved down by the current Court, but the root of Roe will not be cut until an exceptional female leader joins the Court. That might happen in a matter of months, or it might happen in a year or two, but I do believe it is coming soon.
Recommended Action: Please pray – as often as it crosses your mind – for the Lord to place a brilliant, powerful, charismatic, constitutionalist woman of courage on the Supreme Court. And, pray that she joins the Court soon - very soon!